pmpforgc
06-08 10:39 PM
Are you new to Atlanta area?
Hi
I am in atlanta area for above a year. Moved from SC. Any suggestions or comments on my earlier post?
Thanks
Hi
I am in atlanta area for above a year. Moved from SC. Any suggestions or comments on my earlier post?
Thanks
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Macaca
07-08 10:48 AM
Must an H-1B alien be working at all times? (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=a62bec897643f010VgnVCM1000000ecd190aRCR D&vgnextchannel=1847c9ee2f82b010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD)
As long as the employer/employee relationship exists, an H-1B alien is still in status. An H-1B alien may work in full or part-time employment and remain in status. An H-1B alien may also be on vacation, sick/maternity/paternity leave, on strike, or otherwise inactive without affecting his or her status.
He received a notice of intent to denial last month. Reason being he did not have paystubs for a period of more than 6 months during 2000 and 2001. His employer at that time did not pay him even after he worked for 4 months then he took few more months to change his company(more than 180 days).
I am not aware of any GC stage that requires all pay stubs. How did they detect missing pay stubs for 6+ months?
As long as the employer/employee relationship exists, an H-1B alien is still in status. An H-1B alien may work in full or part-time employment and remain in status. An H-1B alien may also be on vacation, sick/maternity/paternity leave, on strike, or otherwise inactive without affecting his or her status.
He received a notice of intent to denial last month. Reason being he did not have paystubs for a period of more than 6 months during 2000 and 2001. His employer at that time did not pay him even after he worked for 4 months then he took few more months to change his company(more than 180 days).
I am not aware of any GC stage that requires all pay stubs. How did they detect missing pay stubs for 6+ months?
pappu
04-07 05:29 AM
My understanding H1 B employers (mostly desi companies) are root cause of this situation by abusing H1 b program, they have made enough money by sucking H1 employees blood, now hey are equally affected it is time for them to share some of it and fund all the efforts to curb these kind of Bills.
Please forward the text of this bill to all your employers and ask them to join hands with IV.
Members working for consulting companies can talk to their employers about this. Let us know their response.
Please forward the text of this bill to all your employers and ask them to join hands with IV.
Members working for consulting companies can talk to their employers about this. Let us know their response.
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santb1975
09-29 11:17 AM
I am really frustrated being in this limbo after spending more than 10 years of my life here. This great land has given a lot to me and I really want to be part of this great nation and contribute to this land all my life. However, with my status still being temporary after 10 years it does not seem logical to make long term plans or make any investments in here.
This year 4 of my class mates (from engineering college in India) have moved out of the US. I have one other classmate who had picked a position in Singapore over one being offered in the US two years back, and he already has his PR there. He did not want the uncertainty of not know what to call home even after 5 or 8 or 10 years. He called it "settling down".
When we were graduating from engineering college, there was peer pressure to come to the US and pursue higher education and the "American Dream". Now I feel like my time to head out may come sooner rather than later.
This year 4 of my class mates (from engineering college in India) have moved out of the US. I have one other classmate who had picked a position in Singapore over one being offered in the US two years back, and he already has his PR there. He did not want the uncertainty of not know what to call home even after 5 or 8 or 10 years. He called it "settling down".
When we were graduating from engineering college, there was peer pressure to come to the US and pursue higher education and the "American Dream". Now I feel like my time to head out may come sooner rather than later.
more...
SunnySurya
08-06 08:51 AM
Rolling_Flood,
If you are willing to take action, I am with you. Don't worry about what other people are saying, it does not matter. A man got to do what he got to do.
Let us start with taking some legal opinions. I am willing to share the cost.
I also beleive (and firmly so) that the PD porting among categories should not be allowed.
I am sending you my phone number in PM. Call me when you are ready and we can discuss more. Alternatively, give me your phone number as I definitly want to follow through.
Thanks
Sunny
teri life mein koi accomplishment nahi hai to gussa kyun ho raha hai??!!
haan, i cracked the JEE...........aur har kaam tere se behtar kar sakta hun....work, sports, you name it........
saale insecure tu hai...........main to wohi karunga jo mere ko theek laga....
take care, BUDDY!
If you are willing to take action, I am with you. Don't worry about what other people are saying, it does not matter. A man got to do what he got to do.
Let us start with taking some legal opinions. I am willing to share the cost.
I also beleive (and firmly so) that the PD porting among categories should not be allowed.
I am sending you my phone number in PM. Call me when you are ready and we can discuss more. Alternatively, give me your phone number as I definitly want to follow through.
Thanks
Sunny
teri life mein koi accomplishment nahi hai to gussa kyun ho raha hai??!!
haan, i cracked the JEE...........aur har kaam tere se behtar kar sakta hun....work, sports, you name it........
saale insecure tu hai...........main to wohi karunga jo mere ko theek laga....
take care, BUDDY!
unitednations
08-03 08:50 PM
Do you really think they would send the G-325a to the consulate? Do the consulates keep all the records? For how long? I heard from immigrationportal, somebody said they only send G-325a to the consulate if one applied a visa within one year prior to AOS application. Can anyone confirm this?
If they send everyone's G-325a form to the consulates, would that result in another backlog? Thanks.
How come the concern???
USCIS forms ask questions for a reason right? They ask for the visa number, consulate issued, etc. There are a lot of inter-agency checks. When people are stuck in background check; it is a whole host of things that they check. Most of what they check is confidential and isn't even public; they are more investigative techniques.
If they send everyone's G-325a form to the consulates, would that result in another backlog? Thanks.
How come the concern???
USCIS forms ask questions for a reason right? They ask for the visa number, consulate issued, etc. There are a lot of inter-agency checks. When people are stuck in background check; it is a whole host of things that they check. Most of what they check is confidential and isn't even public; they are more investigative techniques.
more...
srkamath
07-13 04:32 PM
Peace! That letter wasn't the final print; we could change it for better. That was just an initiative. Do not pick on others writing skills. English is after all not the language in which most of us think; we use our mother tongue instead and then do the translation!
Please help if you can, nobody would deny an helping hand.
I'm not picking on anybody's writing skills, sorry if it sounded so.......I was a little upset by the ".....crying like little babies...." remark by rajuram.
My intent is to get someone to write a good letter that makes a compelling case for EB3 reform. No ranting, whining, pleading, no envy ......... just an eager, passionate appeal for broad reform.
We are in an English Speaking nation - to succeed we must write and speak well in English - No EXCUSES. Good writing is an acquired skill.
The letter will not be very effective it is misdirected - write to congress not DOS/DOL/DHS.
EB3 members - please draft a passionate letter(s) express the pain (not frustration)....
Please help if you can, nobody would deny an helping hand.
I'm not picking on anybody's writing skills, sorry if it sounded so.......I was a little upset by the ".....crying like little babies...." remark by rajuram.
My intent is to get someone to write a good letter that makes a compelling case for EB3 reform. No ranting, whining, pleading, no envy ......... just an eager, passionate appeal for broad reform.
We are in an English Speaking nation - to succeed we must write and speak well in English - No EXCUSES. Good writing is an acquired skill.
The letter will not be very effective it is misdirected - write to congress not DOS/DOL/DHS.
EB3 members - please draft a passionate letter(s) express the pain (not frustration)....
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chanduv23
04-12 04:46 PM
Many/most of us here have worked like crazy dogs most of lives, followed the rules, and played by the book. "Everyone" does not have your cavalier attitude towards truth.
Working like crazy dogs????? Thats your problem. No one asked you to. if you worked like crazy dogs
(1) Either your employer enslaved you
(2) or You did it on your own
40 hours per week is standard working hours. Anything more than that is generally done at times of need. So if you are constantly working and complaining about that, then thats entirely your fault.
Working like crazy dogs????? Thats your problem. No one asked you to. if you worked like crazy dogs
(1) Either your employer enslaved you
(2) or You did it on your own
40 hours per week is standard working hours. Anything more than that is generally done at times of need. So if you are constantly working and complaining about that, then thats entirely your fault.
more...
rvr_jcop
03-26 07:21 PM
The attachment upload fails for me as well but goddamn UN, you are unbelievable.
1. Your knowledge of the specifics and technicalities and access to information is very impressive
2. And you go out of your way to share it with others
That being said, I skimmed through the document real quick and the part that caught my eye was the AAOs point on the applicant never having resided/lived in the same state as the employer, which you had also mentioned in one of your earlier posts.
Wouldn't that be quite common in most consulting scenarios? What if the beneficiary/applicant has never lived in the same state as the petitioning employer but has lived in and worked for the employer (at client locations, offsite assignments) in nearby bordering states, from before the labor was filed and until long after the 485 was filed. Do you see the USCIS ever having issues with that?
Thanks for bringing this up. I hear so many explanations related to the work location.
The GC is always for future job and you never have to work at that location until you get the GC in hand. So while on H-1 if you are at a different location, but with the same employer, there shouldnt be any issue. But if you are not working for the GC filed employer and if you never have any intention to work for them and used AC-21 to different employer, then that becomes difficult to prove the 'intent to work' at the time of 140 filing.
The question I heard someone asking, what if the employer filed for Labor in a state where they do not have office but list the client location as the location that you work upon GC approval. I am not sure if that is a possibility. Probably UN could weigh in on this one.
1. Your knowledge of the specifics and technicalities and access to information is very impressive
2. And you go out of your way to share it with others
That being said, I skimmed through the document real quick and the part that caught my eye was the AAOs point on the applicant never having resided/lived in the same state as the employer, which you had also mentioned in one of your earlier posts.
Wouldn't that be quite common in most consulting scenarios? What if the beneficiary/applicant has never lived in the same state as the petitioning employer but has lived in and worked for the employer (at client locations, offsite assignments) in nearby bordering states, from before the labor was filed and until long after the 485 was filed. Do you see the USCIS ever having issues with that?
Thanks for bringing this up. I hear so many explanations related to the work location.
The GC is always for future job and you never have to work at that location until you get the GC in hand. So while on H-1 if you are at a different location, but with the same employer, there shouldnt be any issue. But if you are not working for the GC filed employer and if you never have any intention to work for them and used AC-21 to different employer, then that becomes difficult to prove the 'intent to work' at the time of 140 filing.
The question I heard someone asking, what if the employer filed for Labor in a state where they do not have office but list the client location as the location that you work upon GC approval. I am not sure if that is a possibility. Probably UN could weigh in on this one.
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malaGCPahije
08-11 09:33 AM
for this magnificent video!!
I was in awe of the video myself when my colleague sent it to me. It leaves a mark on you. Glad you liked it too. Enjoy.
If anyone is wondering what video we are talking about, here is the link again.
http://www.vimeo.com/1211060
I was in awe of the video myself when my colleague sent it to me. It leaves a mark on you. Glad you liked it too. Enjoy.
If anyone is wondering what video we are talking about, here is the link again.
http://www.vimeo.com/1211060
more...
dartkid31
05-24 11:18 AM
He is just using this to play illegals vs legals. If you watch his lousy program, he is constantly ranting that this CIR bill will increase immigration by 100 million plus in the next few years. Some time back he also said that the CIR is a covert operation to increase H1Bs and legal immigration, not just about illegal immigrants. You can tune out what Lou says, he's doing what he can to improve his ratings.
Very true. And if anyone is still not convinced, check out this doozy:
http://www.alternet.org/blogs/peek/36625/
All Lou Dobbs does is promote the agenda of Tom Tancredo, Jeff Sessions, FAIR, NumbersUsa, John Tanton, and our other good friends. And we know where they stand.
Very true. And if anyone is still not convinced, check out this doozy:
http://www.alternet.org/blogs/peek/36625/
All Lou Dobbs does is promote the agenda of Tom Tancredo, Jeff Sessions, FAIR, NumbersUsa, John Tanton, and our other good friends. And we know where they stand.
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sanju
04-08 08:23 AM
Yeah right....
If the whistleblower protection does not protect the non-immigrant status, nobody would blow THAT whistle, would they ??
Would you???
If the whistleblower protection does not protect the non-immigrant status, nobody would blow THAT whistle, would they ??
Would you???
more...
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cinqsit
03-26 06:25 PM
Alas cannot upload an attachment either ..
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learning01
05-24 02:09 PM
threads and postings. Since he is challenging and throwing baby tantrums on a forum, of all things, let's have it.
Here, I quote from his first troll post in this thread:
wages have been stagnated for the last five years.
Now, my friend Communique can you back this up with reliable references and links. Also, can you rebut, point by point on what I said about Lou Dobbs.
Even in the commentary in the link given by this thread's starter, there is all kinds of rants from Lou and not one, I repeat not one senctence, let alone one paragraph on issues affecting legal immigration.
I have said earlier: we have to stay focussed on the retrogression and backlog issues. That's what I have been urging Communique and others in this thread. Increase or decrease of H1 is not our goal here. In fact, I should not discussing this. I was trying to bring all folks here to our focussed goals and action on hand.
I've said this before: I usually dont like casting aspersions, but take a look at a lot of Communique's posts. Some look like they were copied and pasted word for word from the NumbersUsa or FAIR site. And now he's defending Lou Dobbs. Using terms like "mass migration" "unchecked immigration", etc. He claims to be an H1B, and he's trolling Lou Dobbs. I think most people on this site can see through the facade.
Here, I quote from his first troll post in this thread:
wages have been stagnated for the last five years.
Now, my friend Communique can you back this up with reliable references and links. Also, can you rebut, point by point on what I said about Lou Dobbs.
Even in the commentary in the link given by this thread's starter, there is all kinds of rants from Lou and not one, I repeat not one senctence, let alone one paragraph on issues affecting legal immigration.
I have said earlier: we have to stay focussed on the retrogression and backlog issues. That's what I have been urging Communique and others in this thread. Increase or decrease of H1 is not our goal here. In fact, I should not discussing this. I was trying to bring all folks here to our focussed goals and action on hand.
I've said this before: I usually dont like casting aspersions, but take a look at a lot of Communique's posts. Some look like they were copied and pasted word for word from the NumbersUsa or FAIR site. And now he's defending Lou Dobbs. Using terms like "mass migration" "unchecked immigration", etc. He claims to be an H1B, and he's trolling Lou Dobbs. I think most people on this site can see through the facade.
more...
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Pineapple
12-26 09:39 PM
Thanks Macaca, for doing the hard work no one else will (or can!!), and unearthing articles/compiling/collating research papers on the broader issues... My hats off to you!
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DSJ
05-16 08:26 AM
Cool down.....
I am not saying Infy and others are doing it right. If US asking more explanation that is fine with me, they should have used their brain before approving cases, not after. My point is consulting is not new to H1, even so called big company also do that via "permanent job".
No this is not correct. If consultancy companies are not there we could find a permanent job. I do not think if H1b is banned for consulting H1b numbers will be reduced so much. H1b rotation will be reduced. But still TCS, Infosys will survive as they have lot of other options like L1 and B1.But US persons will make more money in consulting as there is no restriction for them. So impact is minimal for US companies and also H1B persons. impact will be severe for bodyshoppers. Also current H1b people will not be impacted as most of them will file I 485 as Skil bill be passed. But H1b abuse will be minimised.
I am not saying Infy and others are doing it right. If US asking more explanation that is fine with me, they should have used their brain before approving cases, not after. My point is consulting is not new to H1, even so called big company also do that via "permanent job".
No this is not correct. If consultancy companies are not there we could find a permanent job. I do not think if H1b is banned for consulting H1b numbers will be reduced so much. H1b rotation will be reduced. But still TCS, Infosys will survive as they have lot of other options like L1 and B1.But US persons will make more money in consulting as there is no restriction for them. So impact is minimal for US companies and also H1B persons. impact will be severe for bodyshoppers. Also current H1b people will not be impacted as most of them will file I 485 as Skil bill be passed. But H1b abuse will be minimised.
more...
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spicy_guy
09-19 07:53 PM
hi
they are taking social security, medicare taxes. while we are not getting any benefit out of it. they must stop taking social. they are taking this taxes based on that they will give us permanent status. now they have delayed process near to impossible for EB-3.
Intent of social security and medicare is to support social security benefits, but when they are not granting any of this benefit they should stop taking it from us or should make green card processing faster.
they should clarify this situation since they are taking money from us.
hetal shah
hetalvn@yahoo.com
You will reap the benefits when you retire. Not now
they are taking social security, medicare taxes. while we are not getting any benefit out of it. they must stop taking social. they are taking this taxes based on that they will give us permanent status. now they have delayed process near to impossible for EB-3.
Intent of social security and medicare is to support social security benefits, but when they are not granting any of this benefit they should stop taking it from us or should make green card processing faster.
they should clarify this situation since they are taking money from us.
hetal shah
hetalvn@yahoo.com
You will reap the benefits when you retire. Not now
girlfriend I was one of those kids who
hiralal
06-07 09:50 PM
I definitely agree with the post above :). ..here is another article ..not the best bit vague but still good ..it came in just now on cnbc
note the line marked in red ..it still depends on economy ...but predictions are that US economy may stagnate plus tight immi ..and you can see what will happen in future
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31151346
--------------------
Home prices in the United States have been falling for nearly three years, and the decline may well continue for some time.
AP
Even the federal government has projected price decreases through 2010. As a baseline, the stress tests recently performed on big banks included a total fall in housing prices of 41 percent from 2006 through 2010. Their “more adverse” forecast projected a drop of 48 percent — suggesting that important housing ratios, like price to rent, and price to construction cost — would fall to their lowest levels in 20 years.
Such long, steady housing price declines seem to defy both common sense and the traditional laws of economics, which assume that people act rationally and that markets are efficient. Why would a sensible person watch the value of his home fall for years, only to sell for a big loss? Why not sell early in the cycle? If people acted as the efficient-market theory says they should, prices would come down right away, not gradually over years, and these cycles would be much shorter.
But something is definitely different about real estate. Long declines do happen with some regularity. And despite the uptick last week in pending home sales and recent improvement in consumer confidence, we still appear to be in a continuing price decline.
There are many historical examples. After the bursting of the Japanese housing bubble in 1991, land prices in Japan’s major cities fell every single year for 15 consecutive years.
Why does this happen? One could easily believe that people are a little slower to sell their homes than, say, their stocks. But years slower?
Several factors can explain the snail-like behavior of the real estate market. An important one is that sales of existing homes are mainly by people who are planning to buy other homes. So even if sellers think that home prices are in decline, most have no reason to hurry because they are not really leaving the market.
Furthermore, few homeowners consider exiting the housing market for purely speculative reasons. First, many owners don’t have a speculator’s sense of urgency. And they don’t like shifting from being owners to renters, a process entailing lifestyle changes that can take years to effect.
Among couples sharing a house, for example, any decision to sell and switch to a rental requires the assent of both partners. Even growing children, who may resent being shifted to another school district and placed in a rental apartment, are likely to have some veto power.
In fact, most decisions to exit the market in favor of renting are not market-timing moves. Instead, they reflect the growing pressures of economic necessity. This may involve foreclosure or just difficulty paying bills, or gradual changes in opinion about how to live in an economic downturn.
This dynamic helps to explain why, at a time of high unemployment, declines in home prices may be long-lasting and predictable.
Imagine a young couple now renting an apartment. A few years ago, they were toying with the idea of buying a house, but seeing unemployment all around them and the turmoil in the housing market, they have changed their thinking: they have decided to remain renters. They may not revisit that decision for some years. It is settled in their minds for now.
On the other hand, an elderly couple who during the boom were holding out against selling their home and moving to a continuing-care retirement community have decided that it’s finally the time to do so. It may take them a year or two to sort through a lifetime of belongings and prepare for the move, but they may never revisit their decision again.
As a result, we will have a seller and no buyer, and there will be that much less demand relative to supply — and one more reason that prices may continue to fall, or stagnate, in 2010 or 2011.
All of these people could be made to change their plans if a sharp improvement in the economy got their attention. The young couple could change their minds and decide to buy next year, and the elderly couple could decide to further postpone their selling. That would leave us with a buyer and no seller, providing an upward kick to the market price.
For this reason, not all economists agree that home price declines are really predictable. Ray Fair, my colleague at Yale, for one, warns that any trend up or down may suddenly be reversed if there is an economic “regime change” — a shift big enough to make people change their thinking.
But market changes that big don’t occur every day. And when they do, there is a coordination problem: people won’t all change their views about homeownership at once. Some will focus on recent price declines, which may seem to belie any improvement in the economy, reinforcing negative attitudes about the housing market.
Even if there is a quick end to the recession, the housing market’s poor performance may linger. After the last home price boom, which ended about the time of the 1990-91 recession, home prices did not start moving upward, even incrementally, until 1997.
note the line marked in red ..it still depends on economy ...but predictions are that US economy may stagnate plus tight immi ..and you can see what will happen in future
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31151346
--------------------
Home prices in the United States have been falling for nearly three years, and the decline may well continue for some time.
AP
Even the federal government has projected price decreases through 2010. As a baseline, the stress tests recently performed on big banks included a total fall in housing prices of 41 percent from 2006 through 2010. Their “more adverse” forecast projected a drop of 48 percent — suggesting that important housing ratios, like price to rent, and price to construction cost — would fall to their lowest levels in 20 years.
Such long, steady housing price declines seem to defy both common sense and the traditional laws of economics, which assume that people act rationally and that markets are efficient. Why would a sensible person watch the value of his home fall for years, only to sell for a big loss? Why not sell early in the cycle? If people acted as the efficient-market theory says they should, prices would come down right away, not gradually over years, and these cycles would be much shorter.
But something is definitely different about real estate. Long declines do happen with some regularity. And despite the uptick last week in pending home sales and recent improvement in consumer confidence, we still appear to be in a continuing price decline.
There are many historical examples. After the bursting of the Japanese housing bubble in 1991, land prices in Japan’s major cities fell every single year for 15 consecutive years.
Why does this happen? One could easily believe that people are a little slower to sell their homes than, say, their stocks. But years slower?
Several factors can explain the snail-like behavior of the real estate market. An important one is that sales of existing homes are mainly by people who are planning to buy other homes. So even if sellers think that home prices are in decline, most have no reason to hurry because they are not really leaving the market.
Furthermore, few homeowners consider exiting the housing market for purely speculative reasons. First, many owners don’t have a speculator’s sense of urgency. And they don’t like shifting from being owners to renters, a process entailing lifestyle changes that can take years to effect.
Among couples sharing a house, for example, any decision to sell and switch to a rental requires the assent of both partners. Even growing children, who may resent being shifted to another school district and placed in a rental apartment, are likely to have some veto power.
In fact, most decisions to exit the market in favor of renting are not market-timing moves. Instead, they reflect the growing pressures of economic necessity. This may involve foreclosure or just difficulty paying bills, or gradual changes in opinion about how to live in an economic downturn.
This dynamic helps to explain why, at a time of high unemployment, declines in home prices may be long-lasting and predictable.
Imagine a young couple now renting an apartment. A few years ago, they were toying with the idea of buying a house, but seeing unemployment all around them and the turmoil in the housing market, they have changed their thinking: they have decided to remain renters. They may not revisit that decision for some years. It is settled in their minds for now.
On the other hand, an elderly couple who during the boom were holding out against selling their home and moving to a continuing-care retirement community have decided that it’s finally the time to do so. It may take them a year or two to sort through a lifetime of belongings and prepare for the move, but they may never revisit their decision again.
As a result, we will have a seller and no buyer, and there will be that much less demand relative to supply — and one more reason that prices may continue to fall, or stagnate, in 2010 or 2011.
All of these people could be made to change their plans if a sharp improvement in the economy got their attention. The young couple could change their minds and decide to buy next year, and the elderly couple could decide to further postpone their selling. That would leave us with a buyer and no seller, providing an upward kick to the market price.
For this reason, not all economists agree that home price declines are really predictable. Ray Fair, my colleague at Yale, for one, warns that any trend up or down may suddenly be reversed if there is an economic “regime change” — a shift big enough to make people change their thinking.
But market changes that big don’t occur every day. And when they do, there is a coordination problem: people won’t all change their views about homeownership at once. Some will focus on recent price declines, which may seem to belie any improvement in the economy, reinforcing negative attitudes about the housing market.
Even if there is a quick end to the recession, the housing market’s poor performance may linger. After the last home price boom, which ended about the time of the 1990-91 recession, home prices did not start moving upward, even incrementally, until 1997.
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hiralal
06-08 07:24 AM
similar arguments and predictions by different analysts
------------------------------
And here's Whitney and Glenn's take on the future of house prices:
We think housing prices will reach fair value/trend line, down 40% from the peak based on the
S&P/Case-Shiller national (not 20-city) index, which implies a 5-10% further decline from where
prices where as of the end of Q1 2009. It’s almost certain that prices will reach these levels.
• The key question is whether housing prices will go crashing through the trend line and fall well below fair value. Unfortunately, this is very likely.
In the long-term, housing prices will likely settle around fair value, but in the short-term prices will be driven both by psychology as well as supply and demand. The trends in both are very unfavorable.
– Regarding the former, national home prices have declined for 33 consecutive months since their peak in July 2006 through April 2009 and there’s no end in sight, so this makes buyers reluctant – even when the price appears cheap – and sellers desperate.
– Regarding the latter, there is a huge mismatch between supply and demand, due largely to the tsunami of foreclosures. In March 2009, distressed sales accounted for just over 50% of all existing home sales nationwide – and more than 57% in California. In addition, the “shadow” inventory of foreclosed homes already likely exceeds one year and there will be millions more foreclosures over the next few years, creating a large overhang of excess supply that will likely cause prices to overshoot on the downside, as they are already doing in California.
• Therefore, we expect housing prices to decline 45-50% from the peak, bottoming in mid-2010
• We are also quite certain that wherever prices bottom, there will be no quick rebound
• There’s too much inventory to work off quickly, especially in light of the millions of foreclosures
over the next few years
• While foreclosure sales are booming in many areas, regular sales by homeowners have plunged,
in part because people usually can’t sell when they’re underwater on their mortgage and in part
due to human psychology: people naturally anchor on the price they paid or what something was
worth in the past and are reluctant to sell below this level. We suspect that there are millions of
homeowners like this who will emerge as sellers at the first sign of a rebound in home prices
• Finally, we don’t think the economy is likely to provide a tailwind, as we expect it to contract the
rest of 2009, stagnate in 2010, and only then grow tepidly for some time thereafter.
------------------------------
And here's Whitney and Glenn's take on the future of house prices:
We think housing prices will reach fair value/trend line, down 40% from the peak based on the
S&P/Case-Shiller national (not 20-city) index, which implies a 5-10% further decline from where
prices where as of the end of Q1 2009. It’s almost certain that prices will reach these levels.
• The key question is whether housing prices will go crashing through the trend line and fall well below fair value. Unfortunately, this is very likely.
In the long-term, housing prices will likely settle around fair value, but in the short-term prices will be driven both by psychology as well as supply and demand. The trends in both are very unfavorable.
– Regarding the former, national home prices have declined for 33 consecutive months since their peak in July 2006 through April 2009 and there’s no end in sight, so this makes buyers reluctant – even when the price appears cheap – and sellers desperate.
– Regarding the latter, there is a huge mismatch between supply and demand, due largely to the tsunami of foreclosures. In March 2009, distressed sales accounted for just over 50% of all existing home sales nationwide – and more than 57% in California. In addition, the “shadow” inventory of foreclosed homes already likely exceeds one year and there will be millions more foreclosures over the next few years, creating a large overhang of excess supply that will likely cause prices to overshoot on the downside, as they are already doing in California.
• Therefore, we expect housing prices to decline 45-50% from the peak, bottoming in mid-2010
• We are also quite certain that wherever prices bottom, there will be no quick rebound
• There’s too much inventory to work off quickly, especially in light of the millions of foreclosures
over the next few years
• While foreclosure sales are booming in many areas, regular sales by homeowners have plunged,
in part because people usually can’t sell when they’re underwater on their mortgage and in part
due to human psychology: people naturally anchor on the price they paid or what something was
worth in the past and are reluctant to sell below this level. We suspect that there are millions of
homeowners like this who will emerge as sellers at the first sign of a rebound in home prices
• Finally, we don’t think the economy is likely to provide a tailwind, as we expect it to contract the
rest of 2009, stagnate in 2010, and only then grow tepidly for some time thereafter.
anand2007
07-07 11:42 PM
I wish you a good luck and hope that your issue will be solved. contact good lawyer soon.
delax
07-14 10:43 PM
if people have to debate this issue, surely we can do it without needless slander and accusations?
i agree with GC applicant, words like that do not sound right and have no place here please.
btw when the vertical spillover started, there was alot of angst, these last two years all retrogressed categories except EB3 ROW have suffered. so that is not true either. except that there was frankly nothing we could do about it. there were long debates similar to the current ones- then they were between Eb2I and EB3 ROW and no conclusion was reached of course, and nothing changed by screaming at each other. finally USCIS as stated by them, has taken counsel about that "change" they made and concluded that they made an error in interpretation. what they have actually done now is rolled back a change they previosuly made.
i also want to say to all the EB2 I crowd here- all this chest thumping is pointless. EB2 I will go back, a lot, this is just a temporary flood gate to use the remaining Gc numbers for the year. meanwhile, the plight of EB3I is truly bad. lets please keep working on the recapture/exemption/ country quota bill trio that would incraese available Gc numbers- for ALL our sakes.
Paskal,
Thanks for your post. But I beg to differ. If calling a spade a spade without any implication built into the language is slander/chest thumping then I stand down. You are free to moderate the forum per the framework laid out.
However here is some food for thought for the mods and the community at large:
1. Is IV officially and specifically endorsing this consideration campaign of giving numbers to EB3 based on the letter.
2. If not, then the implication in the letter is that IV is doing so based on the logo used.
3. Lets take a step back and think over what the letter/campaign/posts in this thread are asking the USCIS to do.
4. There is a request to allocate numbers to EB3 based on length of wait.
5. These numbers can only come from EB1 or EB2 given that the pie is not going to grow pending new legislation.
6. If we accept that EB2ROW spill over can go only to EB2-Retro and only after EB2-Retro becomes current can they flow to EB3 (ROW/Retro) then the only source of visa numbers for EB3-Retro becomes EB1 spill over.
7. We are then saying that some EB1 spill over should go to both EB2 retro and EB3 ROW/retro. Even in this case EB3 ROW has to become current, then satisfy EB2-Retro and only then flow down to EB3-Retro.
8. If this is the case then one of two things can happen. Either the spill over from EB1 is small enough to satisfy EB3 ROW and EB2-Retro partially leaving EB3-Retro still high and dry or the spill over is so large that it makes EB3ROW current, EB2-Retro current and moves EB3-Retro forward. Given the sheer volume of EB2-Retro petitions that is unlikely to happen even if the spill over is large.
9. This means that the letter is really asking for EB1 spill over to be such that it makes EB3 ROW current and then splits the remainder between EB2-Retro and EB3-Retro - On what basis - I have no clue. We are sub-ordinating EB2-Retro to EB3ROW and considering it on par with EB3-Retro. Think about that for a moment. The law allows you to ignore the country limit. It does not allow you to ignore the category and country limit unless everything is current.
10. Even worse, if EB3-Retro is not claiming such a large spill over from EB1 then the only way EB3-Retro can move fwd is if EB2-ROW spill over is split with EB3 making the allocation logic even more egregious - all based on length of stay and compassionate grounds.
If the IT gurus on this forum care to draw a flow chart based on my points above they'll realize the obvious - the only implication in the language of this letter without directly putting any language to that effect is to shaft EB2-Retro and allocate numbers to EB3-Retro.
I am only stating what is blatantly obvious. Again if this is chest thumping, I stand down - but as I have said before, I will call it as I see it. You are welcome to differ and I look forward to comments from the community – flattering or otherwise. As to the EB2 dates’ moving back, that is a part and parcel of life. Besides they have been stuck at Apr 2004 for more than a year so another year it is. Cheers
i agree with GC applicant, words like that do not sound right and have no place here please.
btw when the vertical spillover started, there was alot of angst, these last two years all retrogressed categories except EB3 ROW have suffered. so that is not true either. except that there was frankly nothing we could do about it. there were long debates similar to the current ones- then they were between Eb2I and EB3 ROW and no conclusion was reached of course, and nothing changed by screaming at each other. finally USCIS as stated by them, has taken counsel about that "change" they made and concluded that they made an error in interpretation. what they have actually done now is rolled back a change they previosuly made.
i also want to say to all the EB2 I crowd here- all this chest thumping is pointless. EB2 I will go back, a lot, this is just a temporary flood gate to use the remaining Gc numbers for the year. meanwhile, the plight of EB3I is truly bad. lets please keep working on the recapture/exemption/ country quota bill trio that would incraese available Gc numbers- for ALL our sakes.
Paskal,
Thanks for your post. But I beg to differ. If calling a spade a spade without any implication built into the language is slander/chest thumping then I stand down. You are free to moderate the forum per the framework laid out.
However here is some food for thought for the mods and the community at large:
1. Is IV officially and specifically endorsing this consideration campaign of giving numbers to EB3 based on the letter.
2. If not, then the implication in the letter is that IV is doing so based on the logo used.
3. Lets take a step back and think over what the letter/campaign/posts in this thread are asking the USCIS to do.
4. There is a request to allocate numbers to EB3 based on length of wait.
5. These numbers can only come from EB1 or EB2 given that the pie is not going to grow pending new legislation.
6. If we accept that EB2ROW spill over can go only to EB2-Retro and only after EB2-Retro becomes current can they flow to EB3 (ROW/Retro) then the only source of visa numbers for EB3-Retro becomes EB1 spill over.
7. We are then saying that some EB1 spill over should go to both EB2 retro and EB3 ROW/retro. Even in this case EB3 ROW has to become current, then satisfy EB2-Retro and only then flow down to EB3-Retro.
8. If this is the case then one of two things can happen. Either the spill over from EB1 is small enough to satisfy EB3 ROW and EB2-Retro partially leaving EB3-Retro still high and dry or the spill over is so large that it makes EB3ROW current, EB2-Retro current and moves EB3-Retro forward. Given the sheer volume of EB2-Retro petitions that is unlikely to happen even if the spill over is large.
9. This means that the letter is really asking for EB1 spill over to be such that it makes EB3 ROW current and then splits the remainder between EB2-Retro and EB3-Retro - On what basis - I have no clue. We are sub-ordinating EB2-Retro to EB3ROW and considering it on par with EB3-Retro. Think about that for a moment. The law allows you to ignore the country limit. It does not allow you to ignore the category and country limit unless everything is current.
10. Even worse, if EB3-Retro is not claiming such a large spill over from EB1 then the only way EB3-Retro can move fwd is if EB2-ROW spill over is split with EB3 making the allocation logic even more egregious - all based on length of stay and compassionate grounds.
If the IT gurus on this forum care to draw a flow chart based on my points above they'll realize the obvious - the only implication in the language of this letter without directly putting any language to that effect is to shaft EB2-Retro and allocate numbers to EB3-Retro.
I am only stating what is blatantly obvious. Again if this is chest thumping, I stand down - but as I have said before, I will call it as I see it. You are welcome to differ and I look forward to comments from the community – flattering or otherwise. As to the EB2 dates’ moving back, that is a part and parcel of life. Besides they have been stuck at Apr 2004 for more than a year so another year it is. Cheers
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